# V4 Launch Concurrency and Monetization Forecast

Status: Active planning baseline. Created 2026-06-12 to close the audit gap
(`V1_V7_PLAN_SET_AUDIT_2026-06-12.md` §6.1(4)): the exit criteria gate
matchmaking at "5× expected launch concurrency" (`V4/V4_features.md:1825`,
`:2744`, `V4/V4_ARCHITECTURE.md:1881`) but no document stated what expected
launch concurrency **is**. This document states it, derives it, and attaches
the revenue and cost envelope the live service runs against.

All figures not citing a spec line are **planning assumptions adopted
2026-06-12**, owned by the Finance/BizOps Lead (revenue), Online Services Lead
(capacity), and Live Ops Director (engagement), and are re-forecast at Open
Beta +7 days (≈2026-08-10) and at launch +7/+30/+90 days.

## 1. Expected Launch Concurrency (ELC) — the anchor number

**ELC = 250,000 global peak CCU** in the first launch weekend
(2026-10-03/04), all platforms combined.
**The 5× staging gate target is therefore 1,250,000 synthetic CCU**, with
matchmaking p99 ≤ 35 s held at that load (`V4/V4_features.md:2744`).

### Derivation

Premium-priced launch, 9 platforms (`V4/V4_features.md:300-304`):

1. **First-week sell-through (base): 4.0 M units.** Comparables band
   (2024–2025 launches, publisher-reported): Battlefield 6 >7 M units in 3
   days (Oct 2025); Black Myth: Wukong ~10 M in 3 days (Aug 2024, single
   genre, heavily China-weighted); annual CoD historically 15–25 M first
   month; Helldivers 2 ~8 M in ~6 weeks. V4 is a new IP without an annual
   franchise's pre-order machine — base case set at roughly half of BF6's
   opening: 4.0 M week-1.
2. **Launch-weekend DAU: 55% of owners** = 2.2 M (week-1 owners play in
   week 1; 55% on the same calendar day is the high end of normal).
3. **Peak CCU ≈ 11.5% of DAU** at the global prime-time overlap (EU evening /
   NA midday) — within the 10–15% peak-CCU/DAU band observable from public
   Steam CCU vs. estimated DAU for major shooter launches.
4. 2.2 M × 11.5% ≈ **253 k → round to 250 k**.

Cross-check against public peaks: BF6 Steam-only launch peak ≈ 750 k (Steam is
roughly a third-to-half of a multiplatform shooter's concurrency), CoD HQ
Steam all-time peak ≈ 490 k, Helldivers 2 ≈ 458 k Steam. A 250 k *all-platform*
peak for a new IP sits deliberately below all of these.

### Scenario band

| Scenario | Week-1 units | Peak CCU | 5× staging target | Trigger to adopt |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Conservative | 2.0 M | **120 k** | 600 k | Open Beta peak <55% of pro-rated base |
| **Base** | 4.0 M | **250 k** | 1.25 M | default |
| Optimistic | 8.0 M | **480 k** | 2.4 M | Open Beta peak >150% of pro-rated base; capacity must be pre-provisioned to this level regardless (see §3) |

Open Beta (2026-08-03, open enrollment, `V4/V4_features.md:2724`) pro-rated
expectation: 35–45% of launch peak (planning assumption) → expected Open Beta
peak 90–110 k base case. The Soak test is already specced at 200 k real
players (`V4/V4_features.md:2725-2726`), i.e. 0.8× base ELC — a deliberate
near-full-scale rehearsal.

### Regional split of peak CCU (base case)

Mapped to the 10 dedicated-server regions
(`V4/V4_ARCHITECTURE.md:983-984`). Shares are planning assumptions adopted
2026-06-12 from genre norms (premium shooter, strong EU/NA skew; RTS and
Wukong cells add APAC weight).

| Region | Share | Peak CCU (base) | 5× test |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NA-East | 18% | 45,000 | 225,000 |
| NA-West | 12% | 30,000 | 150,000 |
| EU-West | 20% | 50,000 | 250,000 |
| EU-East | 9% | 22,500 | 112,500 |
| APAC | 17% | 42,500 | 212,500 |
| India | 6% | 15,000 | 75,000 |
| LATAM | 8% | 20,000 | 100,000 |
| ME | 4% | 10,000 | 50,000 |
| Africa | 2% | 5,000 | 25,000 |
| AU/NZ | 4% | 10,000 | 50,000 |
| **Total** | **100%** | **250,000** | **1,250,000** |

Regional prime-time peaks exceed each region's share of the *global* peak;
per-region capacity is provisioned at **1.25× the table row** (regional-prime
factor, planning assumption), and the 5× matchmaking gate is run per region at
that factored load, not only globally.

### Mode mix at peak (drives server demand)

Planning assumption adopted 2026-06-12; re-measured in Open Beta:

| Mode family | Share of CCU | Server model | Players/instance |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Tactical PvP (5v5/6v6/SvM) | 40% | dedicated client-server (`V4_ARCHITECTURE.md:976-1035`) | 10/12/4 |
| Battle Royale | 12% | dedicated, ReplicationGraph bands | 100 |
| RTS (lockstep relay) | 10% | input-relay server, 25 Hz (`:890-932`) | 2–8 |
| PvE co-op (Spec Ops, RTST co-op, Wukong 2P, Horde) | 18% | dedicated or host-authoritative session | 2–6 |
| Single-player (campaigns, Hitman sandbox solo) | 20% | no game server (services only) | — |

→ **Server-attached share ≈ 80% of CCU**; full-simulation dedicated servers
≈ 70% of CCU.

## 2. Hosting cost envelope

### Unit cost assumption

**Blended $0.009 per server-attached CCU-hour** (planning assumption adopted
2026-06-12), decomposed:

- **Compute:** tactical 5v5/6v6 instances at ~0.9 vCPU each (60 Hz server
  tick), BR 100-player instances at ~10 vCPU, RTS relays at ~0.05 vCPU
  (lockstep servers only collect/broadcast input bundles,
  `V4/V4_ARCHITECTURE.md:900-905`). On bare-metal/reserved fleet at
  ~$0.022/vCPU-hour effective, weighted by the §1 mode mix →
  ≈ $0.0021/CCU-h compute.
- **Egress:** from the specced bandwidth budgets
  (`V4/V4_ARCHITECTURE.md:1030-1035`): 32 KB/s (5v5) ≈ 115 MB/h, 38 KB/s
  (6v6) ≈ 137 MB/h, BR 25 KB/s avg ≈ 90 MB/h, SvM 28 KB/s ≈ 101 MB/h.
  Weighted ≈ 0.11 GB/CCU-h; at a $0.02/GB blended (bare-metal-included +
  cloud-burst mix) ≈ $0.0022/CCU-h.
- **Burst premium + headroom:** launch quarter runs 30% cloud-burst capacity
  on top of the reserved floor (autoscale validation per risk R-07) ≈
  $0.0024/CCU-h amortized.
- **Fleet orchestration, DDoS scrubbing, relay/QoS probes:** ≈ $0.0023/CCU-h.

### Launch-quarter monthly cost (base case)

- Average CCU ≈ 38% of peak over the 24 h global curve (planning assumption)
  → 95 k avg CCU; server-attached 80% → 76 k.
- 76 k × 730 h × $0.009 ≈ **$499 k/month game-server hosting**.
- Platform services (the Rust service fleet: matchmaking, login,
  leaderboards, telemetry, workshop, store — `V4/V4_ARCHITECTURE.md` §
  services), databases, observability, CDN for the ≤6 GB day-1 patch
  (`V4/V4_features.md:2727`) and ongoing content: +45% overhead ≈ $225 k.
- **Total infra ≈ $725 k/month at base launch quarter** (conservative
  ≈ $390 k; optimistic ≈ $1.35 M). Per-MAU infra cost ≈ $0.15–0.18/month —
  comfortably inside MTX ARPU (§5).

### AI-inference cost caps

The specced AI surfaces are the Calliope commentary stack — end-of-match
voiced highlight packages, per-match analysis, live spectator commentary, and
P3 extensions (`V4/V4_features.md:2571-2601`,
`V4/cinematics/live-ai-commentary-expansion.json`,
`V4/cinematics/ai-generated-commentary-extended.json`); the AI Director is
local heuristics with no inference cost (`V4/V4_features.md:1527-1564`). The
manifests spec consent, bias review, and opt-out but no spend caps; the
following caps are adopted as planning assumptions 2026-06-12 and should be
promoted into the runtime manifests:

- **End-of-match packages are generated on demand** (player opens the results
  reel), not for every match. At base: ~340 k matches/day; 18% open rate;
  $0.01/package (short LLM pass + TTS) ≈ **$18 k/month**. Hard cap: ≤3
  generations per player per day.
- **Live spectator commentary only on partnered/esports broadcasts**, ≤200
  concurrent commentary streams; per-stream $0.60/h → ≤ $86 k/month worst
  case, expected <$15 k.
- **Podcast recaps** batch once per season per cell (60 generations/season —
  negligible).
- **Global ceiling: AI inference ≤1.5% of monthly net revenue, alert at
  1.0%.** Degradation ladder when breached: (1) lower open-rate cap,
  (2) text-only analysis (drop TTS), (3) live commentary to esports Majors
  only. Degradation never silently substitutes unreviewed output (risk R-14
  fail-closed posture).

## 3. Capacity commitments this forecast creates

- Reserved fleet sized to **base peak × regional 1.25 factor**; burst path
  validated to **optimistic peak (480 k)** within 30 minutes/region.
- The 5× gate (`V4/V4_features.md:2744`) is executed as: 1.25 M synthetic
  clients distributed per the §1 regional table × 1.25, mode mix per §1,
  matchmaking p99 ≤35 s per region, run twice — once before Open Beta entry
  and once at Soak.
- Login queue with ETA active from minute zero (graceful-degradation posture,
  `V4/V4_features.md:296-299`); queue triggers at 92% regional capacity.

## 4. Monetization model

Specced inputs: battle pass, 100 tiers / 90-day season, free + premium tracks,
tier-skip purchase (`V4/V4_features.md:1946-1950`); operator DLC seasonal
(`:1954-1957`); mission DLC $9.99–$19.99, content-not-power (`:1958-1960`);
cosmetic-only store (`:1951-1953`); three currencies
(`V4/V4_ARCHITECTURE.md:1163-1165`); PPP regional pricing
(`V4/V4_features.md:2250`); creator-code revenue share (`:1994-1997`).

Planning assumptions adopted 2026-06-12 where the spec is silent:

- **Premium SKU price:** $69.99 standard / $99.99 deluxe (12% deluxe mix).
  Blended **net revenue per unit $38** after 30% platform fee, PPP regional
  pricing, launch-window discounts on PC, and returns.
- **Battle pass price:** $9.99 (1,000 Combat Points); **attach rate 22% of
  90-day actives** base case (premium-shooter band 15–30%; F2P comparables
  run higher and are not used). Tier-skip + cosmetic store adds 40% on top of
  pass revenue from the same payer base.
- **Mission DLC:** two drops in Year 1 at $14.99 average, **attach 8% of
  owners per drop**.
- **Funnel/retention targets:** Open Beta → purchase conversion 25% of beta
  players; D1/D7/D30 retention 52% / 27% / 13%; payer conversion (any MTX)
  14% of 90-day actives; MTX net ARPU per MAU **$1.40/month** base.

## 5. Year-1 revenue scenarios (net of platform fees)

| Line | Conservative | Base | Optimistic |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Year-1 units | 4.5 M | 9.0 M | 15.0 M |
| Premium net (×$38; conservative ×$36 due to deeper discounting) | $162 M | $342 M | $570 M |
| Avg MAU (Y1) | 1.8 M | 4.0 M | 7.5 M |
| Battle pass (4 seasons; attach 14% / 22% / 26% of quarterly actives, ~$7.0 net/pass) | $7 M | $25 M | $55 M |
| Store cosmetics + tier skips (0.4× pass line… scaling with ARPU) | $10 M | $42 M | $95 M |
| Mission DLC (2 drops; attach 5% / 8% / 10%; ~$10.5 net) | $5 M | $15 M | $32 M |
| **Year-1 net revenue** | **≈ $184 M** | **≈ $424 M** | **≈ $752 M** |
| Infra + AI (12 mo, §2 scaled) | $5 M | $9.5 M | $17 M |
| Live team + support 12 languages + watchtower (planning assumption: 140 / 190 / 240 FTE-equivalent at $175 k loaded) | $24 M | $33 M | $42 M |
| **Live-service margin before marketing/UA** | $155 M | $381 M | $693 M |

LTV check (base): 12-month net LTV per *payer* ≈ premium $38 + MTX
($1.40 × 12 / 14% payer share ≈ $120 per payer... expressed per-owner: $38 +
$16.8 MTX = **≈ $55 net per owner**), against a marketing/UA envelope to be
set ≤ $12 per acquired owner (planning assumption — gives ≥4.5× LTV/CAC).

**Floor test (links risk R-11):** the conservative scenario still covers the
live cost base ~6×; the true downside is conservative units **and** attach
<10%, which puts MTX (~$15 M) below the live team line (~$24 M) — the §2
degradation ladder plus season-length stretch (90→120 days) is the pre-agreed
response, never power monetization (`V4/V4_features.md:1951-1953` is
non-negotiable).

## 6. Re-forecast checkpoints

| Date | Input that lands | Action |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-08-10 (Open Beta +7 d) | real CCU curve, mode mix, funnel conversion | re-pick scenario; resize reserved fleet; re-run 5× gate if scenario changes |
| 2026-09-25 (post-Soak) | 200 k-player soak telemetry | final launch capacity sign-off |
| Launch +7/+30/+90 d | sell-through, attach, retention | re-forecast revenue; battle-pass attach trigger check (R-11); per-cell metrics feed `market-analysis.md` §6 |

Owners: Finance/BizOps Lead (model of record), Online Services Lead
(capacity), Live Ops Director (engagement inputs), Program Director
(scenario adoption decision).