Status: planning baseline, adopted 2026-06-12. Fills the licensing-feasibility
gap identified by V1_V7_PLAN_SET_AUDIT_2026-06-12.md §6.2 ("no
licensing-feasibility analysis for the commercially unprecedented premise").
Scope: the launch-roster requirement of ≥ 60 fighters including ≥ 12 partner-IP
fighters licensed individually (V2/V2_features.md:1021-1022;
V2/ue/Source/V2Combat/Private/V2LaunchRosterData.cpp:563-564). The canonical
roster catalog (V2LaunchRosterData.cpp:609-626) names 18 partner-IP fighters
across four rightsholders:
| Rightsholder | Characters in catalog | License tags |
|---|---|---|
| Capcom | Ryu, Ken Masters, Chun-Li, Cammy | License.PartnerIP.Capcom.* |
| SNK (EGDC) | Terry Bogard, Mai Shiranui, Kyo Kusanagi, Iori Yagami | License.PartnerIP.SNK.* |
| Warner Bros. / NetherRealm | Scorpion, Sub-Zero, Raiden, Liu Kang, Kitana | License.PartnerIP.WB.* |
| Bandai Namco | Jin Kazama, Kazuya Mishima, King, Nina Williams, Mitsurugi | License.PartnerIP.BandaiNamco.* |
Owner-roles used below: BD = Head of Business Development (deal lead), GC = General Counsel, EP = Executive Producer (approval pipeline), BMD = Brand & Marketing Director, RDL = Roster Design Lead.
1. The structural problem with V2's ask#
Every successful character-licensing precedent in fighting games is a guest shot: one or two characters, framed as a marketing event, in a game that does not substitute for the lender's own product. V2's ask is categorically different on three axes:
- Volume. 4-5 characters per franchise — effectively each franchise's iconic core cast, not a guest.
- Substitution. V2 explicitly ships an MK-feel ruleset, an SF-feel
ruleset, a Tekken-feel ruleset, a KOF-adjacent striking system, and an
SC-feel weapon ruleset (
V2/V2_features.md:433"seven first-class rulesets"). A player who owns V2-with-Scorpion-in-an-MK-ruleset has less reason to buy Mortal Kombat. No rightsholder has ever licensed its core cast into a direct genre substitute. - Simultaneity. Capcom, SNK, WB, and Bandai Namco are competitors; appearing together outside Smash requires each to accept co-billing with rivals in a product none of them controls.
Conclusion up front: the all-deals-executed scenario is the upside case, not the plan of record. The plan of record is the all-original fallback roster (§5) with partner-IP slots converted to post-launch DLC as deals close.
2. Per-rightsholder analysis#
2.1 SNK (owned ~96% by EGDC / Savvy Games Group)#
Posture: most permissive licensor in the genre. Outbound precedents: Terry Bogard playable in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (2019); Terry (2024) and Mai (2025) playable in Street Fighter 6 — i.e., SNK has already licensed its leads into a directly competing 1v1 fighting game made by Capcom; Mai Shiranui playable in Dead or Alive 5 Last Round and DOA6 (Koei Tecmo); long SNK-vs-Capcom co-licensing history in both directions; frequent mobile collab licensing. SNK treats outbound appearances as marketing for KOF/Fatal Fury and its new ownership is actively investing in franchise visibility.
- Probability (planning assumption adopted 2026-06-12, derived from the precedent density above): full 4-character slate 35-50%; at least Terry + Mai 55-65%.
- Deal shape expectation: per-character MG against revenue share; strong approval rights on move fidelity (Power Geyser, Musou no Mai etc. must read correctly) and on Mai's costume treatment per regional ratings.
- Watch item: EGDC parentage means deal approval may route through Savvy Games Group; build 8-12 weeks of extra legal latency into the timeline.
2.2 Capcom#
Posture: prolific, precedent-rich, protective of move fidelity. Outbound precedents: Ryu and Ken playable in Smash Ultimate; Ryu and Chun-Li playable as DLC in Power Rangers: Battle for the Grid (2021) — the single most relevant precedent, because nWay is a third-party studio and the game is a tag fighter, proving Capcom will put SF leads into someone else's fighting game; Ryu, Chun-Li, Cammy and Guile cosmetic skins in Fortnite (2021); Street Fighter x Tekken (2012) licensing exchange with Namco; broad merchandising and collab program. Capcom also takes inbound guests (SNK characters into SF6), demonstrating institutional comfort with crossover paper in both directions.
- Probability (planning assumption adopted 2026-06-12): full 4-character
slate 20-30%; a 2-character package (Ryu + Chun-Li, mirroring Battle for
the Grid) 35-45%. Discount vs SNK because SF6 is mid-lifecycle and V2's
SF-feel ruleset (unsmoothed motion inputs, Drive-like meters,
V2/V2_features.md:444) is a closer substitute than any prior licensee. - Deal shape expectation: Capcom historically demands granular approvals (model, animation timing of signature moves, VO casting — Ryu's seiyuu continuity matters) and marketing-asset approval on every use.
2.3 Bandai Namco#
Posture: selective; lends to Nintendo, hoards elsewhere; SC cast almost
never leaves home. Outbound precedents: Kazuya playable in Smash Ultimate
(2021); Heihachi playable in PlayStation All-Stars Battle Royale (2012);
Street Fighter x Tekken licensed the Tekken cast to Capcom in 2012 — but the
reciprocal Tekken x Street Fighter was frozen indefinitely, a signed deal
between two willing publishers that still never shipped, which is the
cautionary precedent for multi-year crossover execution risk. Soulcalibur is
an inbound-guest franchise (Link, Spawn, Yoda/Vader, Ezio, Geralt, 2B);
Mitsurugi has effectively never been licensed out. Tekken 8 is live and
annually monetized; V2's Tekken-feel ruleset with juggles and stage breaks
(V2/V2_features.md:454) is a direct substitute.
- Probability (planning assumption adopted 2026-06-12): full 5-character slate 10-20%; a 1-2 character Tekken package 20-30%; Mitsurugi specifically < 10%.
- Leverage option: offer a reciprocal — a V2 original fighter licensed into Tekken 8 as a guest — plus esports co-promotion. Bandai Namco's Tekken leadership has historically valued reciprocity and personal-relationship deals; route the approach through the Tekken brand custodians, not only corporate licensing.
2.4 Warner Bros. / NetherRealm#
Posture: imports guests, exports almost nothing. NRS games are built on
inbound guest licensing (Kratos, Freddy Krueger, Predator, Terminator, Joker,
Spawn, RoboCop, Rambo, Homelander, Omni-Man...), but MK's own cast has
never been playable in a fighting game WB did not publish. The only
notable outbound use is the Sub-Zero cosmetic skin in Fortnite (2021) — a
non-competing genre, cosmetic-only. Scorpion/Sub-Zero appearances otherwise
stay inside WB products (Injustice, MultiVersus). MK is one of WB Games' few
dependable franchises; post-2023 WB restructuring has made games licensing
more conservative, not less. V2's MK-feel ruleset with fatalities
(V2/V2_TODOS.md §16) is the most direct substitution threat in the whole
ask.
- Probability (planning assumption adopted 2026-06-12): any playable MK character at V2 launch < 5%; post-launch DLC once V2 has a demonstrated market and WB sees incremental revenue rather than substitution, 10-15%.
- Realistic path: a corporate-level WB Games deal (likely bundled with film/TV cross-promotion) negotiated after V2 ships and proves an audience. Plan zero WB characters in the launch window.
2.5 Joint probability and what it means#
Treating the four negotiations as approximately independent (they are not fully — an executed SNK deal raises the others, see §3), the probability that all four full slates close in time for launch is on the order of 0.45 × 0.25 × 0.15 × 0.05 ≈ 0.1%, and even the "any three" scenarios sit below 5%. The probability of at least one meaningful package (SNK 2+ or Capcom 2+) by launch is usefully high (~55-70%). Planning assumption adopted 2026-06-12, derived by multiplying the per-rightsholder midpoints above.
Therefore the catalog's MinimumPartnerIPFighterCount = 12
(V2LaunchRosterData.cpp:564) is not a plannable launch commitment. It must
be reclassified as an aspiration tied to the fallback in §5, and the catalog
validation must accept the all-original configuration (tracked as a follow-on
TODO for the roster validator; this document does not change code).
3. Sequencing strategy#
Pursue deals in descending probability order so each close becomes social proof and a market-rate anchor for the next:
- SNK first (start immediately; target term sheet within 2 quarters). Most willing, sets the precedent that V2 is a legitimate licensee, and establishes the royalty/MG anchor on the friendliest terms. Terry + Mai is the minimum viable package.
- Capcom second (open informally in parallel, push to paper only after SNK signs). Capcom licensing SNK characters into SF6 means Capcom already validated the "rival cast in my fighter" logic — replay their own precedent back to them. Target Ryu + Chun-Li as the package floor.
- Bandai Namco third (after at least one of the above signs). Lead with the reciprocity offer (§2.3). Accept a Tekken-only package; treat Mitsurugi/SC as a Year-2 conversation.
- WB last and opportunistic. Do not gate anything on WB. Re-open at launch + 6 months with sales data.
All approaches are owned by BD with GC on paper and EP on the approval-pipeline commitments. No outreach references the other negotiations by name until at least one deal is executed (confidentiality terms will be asymmetric; assume each rightsholder demands MFN-style price protection — GC to cap MFN clauses to same-franchise-size packages).
4. Cost structure expectations#
All figures are planning assumptions adopted 2026-06-12, derived from analogous entertainment/character licensing structures (brand-licensing royalty norms of 8-15% of wholesale, scaled up for playable-character scope which carries likeness + moveset + VO + music rights) and from the observable structure of guest-character DLC pricing in the genre. No figure below is a quoted market price; each deal will set its own.
| Component | Expected range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Per-character minimum guarantee (MG) | $250k - $1.5M | Recoupable against royalties; marquee names (Ryu, Scorpion) at the top of the band, secondary cast lower. |
| Royalty on directly attributable revenue (DLC character sales, character-specific cosmetics) | 15-30% of net receipts | Attribution is clean only if partner-IP fighters are sold as DLC line items — a strong reason the fallback (§5) is also the cleaner commercial structure. |
| Base-roster inclusion (no separate SKU) | Flat fee 1.5-3× the MG band | Avoid: revenue attribution against a $69.99 bundle invites audit disputes. Prefer DLC structure. |
| Approval overhead | 1 FTE producer + 2-4 week approval latency per milestone per rightsholder | Model, moveset, VO casting, marketing materials, ratings submissions all require sign-off. Budget 4 approval milestones per character. |
| Term | 3-5 years, renewal options, sunset/removal clause | Removal is technically supported: per-fighter asset chunking already specced (V2/V2_features.md:2545-2546) means a lapsed character can be delisted without repacking the game. |
| Audit rights | Annual, rightsholder-paid unless variance > 5% | Standard. |
Budget envelope if the SNK + Capcom packages (6 characters) close:
6 × $750k average MG = $4.5M in guarantees plus ~$600k/yr in approval
and producer overhead — material but small against the production envelope in
content-production-model.md §6. Licensing cost is not the constraint;
willingness is.
5. Fallback plan of record: all-original launch roster#
The catalog already contains 42 original fighters
(V2LaunchRosterData.cpp:567-608). The fallback adds 18 originals to
reach the 60-fighter bar (V2/V2_features.md:1021) with zero partner IP.
5.1 Archetype-slot preservation#
The 18 partner-IP entries occupy archetype slots cycling through all 12
archetypes (Striker, Grappler, Zoner, Rushdown, Powerhouse, Technical,
WeaponMaster, SubmissionSpecialist, Aerial, CounterFighter, StanceSwitcher,
Hybrid — per V2LaunchRosterData.cpp:609-626). Each replacement original is
authored into the identical archetype slot so
RequiredArchetypes coverage and the per-archetype balance matrix are
unchanged. Resulting distribution: 60 fighters = exactly 5 per archetype
(42 originals already give 3-4 per archetype; the 18 backfills top each
archetype to 5).
5.2 Style-pool preservation#
The style-locked move pools (V2/V2_features.md:1040-1042: Wrestling ≥ 80,
Martial Arts ≥ 80, Kickboxing ≥ 60, Streetfighting ≥ 60, Submissions ≥ 50,
Weapon styles ≥ 40 each) are populated by original move data and do not
depend on any licensed character. Each backfill fighter draws from the same
style pool the displaced partner-IP fighter would have exercised, so pool
coverage and CAW/CAM move availability (V2/V2_features.md:1040) are
unaffected. Slot-by-slot replacement plan (fighter names to be authored by
RDL; design briefs below are the planning commitment):
| Displaced slot | Archetype slot (per catalog) | Backfill design brief (style pool) |
|---|---|---|
| Capcom.Ryu | WeaponMaster | Wandering swordsage; iaido weapon style (Weapon pool) |
| Capcom.Ken | SubmissionSpecialist | Flashy catch-wrestling celebrity (Submissions pool) |
| Capcom.ChunLi | Aerial | Acrobatic kicking specialist, aerial loops (Kickboxing pool) |
| Capcom.Cammy | CounterFighter | Special-forces counter-striker (Martial Arts pool) |
| SNK.Terry | StanceSwitcher | Street-brawler with momentum stances (Streetfighting pool) |
| SNK.Mai | Hybrid | Fan-dancer kunoichi, fire props (Weapon + Martial Arts pools) |
| SNK.Kyo | Striker | Pyro-fist heir, short-range pressure (Martial Arts pool) |
| SNK.Iori | Grappler | Rival clan claw-grappler (Streetfighting pool) |
| WB.Scorpion | Zoner | Chain-and-sickle revenant, mid-screen snare (Weapon pool) |
| WB.SubZero | Rushdown | Cryomancer-analog with slide pressure (Martial Arts pool) |
| WB.Raiden | Powerhouse | Storm-priest, heavy palm strikes (Martial Arts pool) |
| WB.LiuKang | Technical | Tournament monk, precise cancels (Kickboxing pool) |
| WB.Kitana | WeaponMaster | Twin war-fan royal (Weapon pool) |
| BandaiNamco.Jin | SubmissionSpecialist | Cursed-bloodline judoka (Submissions pool) |
| BandaiNamco.Kazuya | Aerial | Launch-and-juggle patriarch analog (Martial Arts pool) |
| BandaiNamco.King | CounterFighter | Masked luchador counter-grappler (Wrestling pool) |
| BandaiNamco.Nina | StanceSwitcher | Assassin with stance chains (Submissions + Kickboxing pools) |
| BandaiNamco.Mitsurugi | Hybrid | Ronin duelist (Weapon pool) |
5.3 Legal-distinctiveness review#
Every backfill brief above is an archetype/style replacement, not a clone.
Mandatory review (GC + RDL, recorded per fighter in
V2/balance/fighters/<fighter>/signature-checklist.md per
V2/V2_features.md:1064-1066): no protected trade dress (silhouettes,
signature costumes, color-and-mask combinations), no protectable move names,
no audio soundalikes of protected catchphrases, no likeness of real persons.
Inspiration at the archetype level (a fireball zoner, a chain zoner) is genre
vocabulary; expression-level copying is forbidden and is checked before
concept art leaves the building.
5.4 Partner-IP as post-launch DLC#
When a deal closes post-launch, the licensed character ships as a paid DLC
chunk (clean royalty attribution per §4), occupying a 61st+ roster slot —
the backfill original is never removed. Catalog MinimumPartnerIPFighterCount
applies only to the aspirational configuration and must not gate the fallback
build.
5.5 Production-cost note#
The 18 backfill originals cost ~18 person-months each
(content-production-model.md §5) = 324 person-months (~27 person-years)
— roughly the same as ingesting 18 licensed characters, since licensed
characters still need full V2-pipeline art/anim/VO plus approval overhead.
The fallback is cost-neutral; it removes deal risk, not work.
6. The gate (binding)#
No partner-IP character ships in any marketing material, store asset,
trailer, playtest build, or release build unless an executed license is
recorded in V2/legal/.
Mechanics:
- Executed licenses are recorded at
V2/legal/licenses/<rightsholder>-<character>.md(counterparty, term, territory, MG/royalty summary, approval contacts, sunset date), owned by GC, reviewed quarterly alongside the existing registries (V2/legal/platform-cert-bans.json,V2/legal/rating-boards.json). - A build-time validation gate cross-references every roster entry whose
origin is
PartnerIP(license tagsLicense.PartnerIP.*inV2LaunchRosterData.cpp:609-626) against the records inV2/legal/licenses/. AnyPartnerIPentry without a matching executed record fails the cook for shipping configurations and fails the doc validator for marketing-asset manifests. Owner: EP (gate wiring), GC (record truth). - Marketing sign-off checklist (BMD) includes the same cross-reference; no key art, trailer, or store listing clears review with an unlicensed partner-IP character visible.
- Until at least one record exists in
V2/legal/licenses/, all public materials use the fallback roster of §5 exclusively.
This gate is fail-closed by design: absent paper, the character does not exist.